Finding the story behind a load of numbers and statistics can be tricky, especially if you are one of the many who don't feel they have a facility for figures.
And you begin to feel that a mathematics degree could come in handy to interpret the latest Ofsted Registered Childcare Providers and Places figures for the quarter to 30 September 2010.
Take a look. While the net loss of 487 childminders resulted in a loss of 3,448 childcare places, the net loss of 190 nurseries (712 opening, 902 closing) saw a gain in childcare places of 2,358, meaning that only 1,072 places were lost across the sector in total.
How could this be? Technically, of course, most of the nurseries that closed could be fairly small and those that opened fairly large. But this was not the case. There was very little difference in the size of those opening and those closing. The gain in places came about because existing nurseries added more than 7,000 places to their maximum number between them - the equivalent of 180 extra nurseries of an average size! Yet in the previous quarter, existing nurseries increased in size by only 2,000 or so places, meaning that there was a net loss overall in places - more what you would expect in the current climate. The Ofsted data is very hard to interpret, and much that would be useful is not provided.
Perhaps it is better to keep things simple and feel concerned at the trend for numbers of both childminders and group settings to fall over the past year. George Osborne spoke of encouraging new early years provision in his Spending Review speech - it is hard to see how this is going to be achieved.
