Child obesity trend could be 'exaggerated', say experts
Forecasts of a huge rise in childhood obesity may have been exaggerated, according to new research.
Data from the National Heart Forum shows that obesity in children may be levelling off rather than increasing.
A team of experts from the National Heart Forum and Oxford University compared existing forecasts of obesity based on Healthy Survey for England obesity data and updated forecasts on data between 2000 and 2007.
In 2006 a Government report predicted that more than one million children would be obese by 2010 if nothing was done to prevent it.
The new figures, however, suggest that by 2020, the proportion of obese boys aged two to 11 will fall from 20 per cent to 13 per cent, and for girls of the same age from 14 per cent to 10 per cent.
The revised figures for boys being overweight falls from 22 per cent to 17 per cent and for girls from 34 per cent to 17 per cent.
But Tam Fry of the National Obesity Forum said, 'Cautious optimism is needed. We will have to wait and see what the new Department of Health figures say when they are published next month.
'This research has re-evaluated old data from 2007. You only have to look at data from 2008 to see that things aren't getting better.'
Meanwhile, hundreds of London GPs failed to attend specialist training last week by the Government's Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition on how to use new child growth charts.
The charts are based on the weight of healthy breast-fed babies and for the first time include Body Mass Index, which can be used to monitor childhood obesity (News, 13 May).
Many Primary Care Trusts have also failed to introduce the new charts, which should have been used to measure all newborns from May 2009.
Further information
The full report, 'Obesity Trends for children aged 2-11 years and 12-19 years', is at www.heartforum.org.uk
Previous estimates were based on data between 1993 and 2004.
