Doubts over accuracy as Ofsted figures show slump in providers but rise in places
The number of nurseries, childminders and out-of-school providers has fallen again, according to new Ofsted figures which also show a sharp rise in the number of childcare places.
But early years organisations have criticised the quarterly statistics, which were published two weeks late, for being 'unreliable' and 'confusing'.
Ofsted changed the way the figures were published after the EYFS was introduced. It is now possible to directly compare data for December 2008 with March 2009.
At 31 March there were 232 fewer full daycare, sessional providers, out-of-school clubs and creches - now categorised as 'childcare on non-domestic premises' - than there were at 31 December, but the number of places appears to have risen dramatically by 135,430.
The number of providers on domestic premises has increased, from 66 to 72, but the number of places has almost doubled, from 671 to 1,241.
Ofsted admitted the figures may be higher than the 'true overall maximum number of places' because they may include duplication for settings that are included on both the Early Years Register, covering children from birth to five, and the Childcare Register, for five- to seven-year-olds.
However, while the latest figures show the number of childminders has dropped for the ninth successive quarter, with 1,014 leaving the sector in the past three months, Ofsted failed to explain how the number of places they offer has risen by more than 10 per cent to 333,590 - the highest ever recorded by Ofsted, even though the number of childminders is at its lowest ever.
Charlie Owen, a senior researcher at the Thomas Coram Research Unit at the Institute of Education, said that although there may be some double counting, 'it is very difficult to see how that could account for some of the very big changes in just three months.'
He added, 'Similarly, the number of providers on non-domestic premises has fallen, while the number of places has risen, again by more than 10 per cent. While there are bound to be some initial difficulties whenever a new system of classification is introduced, these large discrepancies over such a short period of time mean there must be some suspicion over the reliability of the statistics.'
Andrew Fletcher, director of communications at the National Childminding Association, said there was 'a confusing discrepancy in the number of providers in relation to the number of places since the last quarter. Registered childminders are able to care for six children under age eight and according to Ofsted's figures, the mean is 5.5 places per childminder. NCMA's membership survey from 2008 shows it is around 5.1.'
December figures show a mean of 4.9 places per childminder.
An Ofsted spokesperson said, 'There is a strong possibility the number of childcare places shown may be higher than the true overall maximum number of places. We are investigating this possibility, and as a result comparisons of place numbers over time need to be treated with caution.'
Arthur Adams, who is married to a childminder, said he hoped the figures were 'not due to an arithmetical error by Ofsted, because as the Government agency charged with raising educational standards that would be very embarrassing.'
FURTHER INFORMATION
'Registered childcare providers and places in England, March 2009' is at www.ofsted.gov.uk
Registered childcare providers
and places 31.12.08 31.03.09
Providers Places Providers Places
Childminders 61,929 299,569 60,915 333,590
Childcare on:
non-domestic premises 29,690 1,076,639 29,458 1,212,069
domestic premises 66 671 72 1,241
Home childcarers 4,516 - 5,481 -
All 96,201 1,376,878 95,926 1,546,900
Source: Ofsted.
